As the 2025 race for Virginia governor heats up, a new poll from Campaign Insights conducted in June offers a first look at where the electorate stands—and the results are compelling.
The Numbers
Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle‑Sears by 16 points among likely voters surveyed:
- Abigail Spanberger – 58%
- Winsome Earle‑Sears – 42%
The poll reflects early momentum for Spanberger, a former CIA officer known for bipartisan appeal, particularly in the suburban districts that powered her to Congress. Earle‑Sears, Virginia’s first Black woman to serve as lieutenant governor, remains a formidable force, rallying the GOP base with her strong conservative stance and national profile.
What This Means
1. A Competitive Race Ahead
Despite Spanberger’s early lead, the race is far from over. With Virginia’s diverse electorate, both campaigns must appeal beyond their base to claim victory. Expect targeted outreach in Northern Virginia suburbs, Hampton Roads, and Richmond’s exurbs.
2. National Implicationsmmanding Lead
This race could serve as a bellwether for post-Biden Democratic viability and the staying power of conservative populism post-Trump. Virginia’s swing-state status gives it oversized relevance on the national stage.
3. Issues That Could Decide It
- Abortion rights
- Inflation and cost of living
- Education and parental rights
- Gun policy and public safety
What’s Next?
With just a few months before ballots go out, expect shifts in polling as campaign ads, endorsements, and debates influence voter opinion. Ground game efforts—especially around voter registration—will be critical.
Stay tuned as we continue to track the race.
Methodology:
Insights derived from proprietary Campaign Insights’ Realtime Research technology, which embeds questions seamlessly into digital environments to collect timely, voluntary responses from a representative cross-section of Americans nationwide.