As the Commonwealth of Virginia heads into the November 4, 2025 governor’s election, voter sentiment in the digital ecosystem offers a timely snapshot of how Virginians are aligning on issues and motivations. Campaign Insights, through our proprietary Realtime Research platform, surveyed over 1,100 residents to reveal what is driving support for Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle‑Sears.
What We’re Polling and Why
For Q4 2025, we surveyed over 1,100 Virginians about the upcoming gubernatorial election, asking: “Which candidate do you support for Governor of Virginia?” We also asked a follow-up question: “What is driving your decision to vote?” Our goal was to understand not just who people support, but why – capturing both the emotional and rational motivations shaping this election cycle.
Results Overview
The raw responses show a lean toward Earle-Sears, reflecting stronger participation from Republican-leaning respondents in our digital sample. However, when adjusted to reflect Virginia’s 2024 electorate (Harris 53 %, Trump 45 %), the results shift to a Spanberger +6 lead, aligning with recent public polling. This gap between raw and weighted results demonstrates Realtime Research’s power – showing not only where public sentiment stands, but also how participation biases appear before weighting corrections.
What’s Driving Voter Decisions
Leadership and character are top motivators among Earle-Sears voters (40 %), while policies and platform drive Spanberger’s base most strongly (35 %). Negative motivation (“dislike of the other candidate”) is twice as prevalent among Spanberger voters. Both groups show relatively low pure party loyalty; only ~8–9 % cited this as their main reason.
Why It Matters
Realtime Research gives a living snapshot of digital opinion — not a static phone poll. Because we measure organically and anonymously across thousands of web and app environments, we capture early enthusiasm and participation patterns before they’re fully visible in traditional polling. By showing both raw online sentiment and weighted real-world estimates, we can track engagement intensity in digital ecosystems, issue-driven shifts before Election Day, and participation surges that may predict turnout trends. This dual-lens approach helps campaigns, analysts, and media outlets understand not only what people think — but why and where that sentiment originates in the modern digital landscape.
Methodology
Realtime Research conducts digital, voluntary, and anonymous polling across the Comscore Top 3,000 websites and mobile apps, engaging individuals where they already spend their time online. Because participation is completely opt-in and location-targeted, our methodology captures a natural slice of the digital population – free from traditional phone-call or panel biases. We then reweight these responses to reflect real-world voter composition based on verified historical data (such as the 2024 presidential electorate split). This approach lets us compare raw sentiment in the digital ecosystem versus weighted, representative sentiment, giving a unique view into how online engagement aligns – or diverges – from the broader electorate.