As New Jersey gears up for its 2025 gubernatorial general election, polling conducted by Campaign Insights ahead of the June primaries reveals powerful insights into voter intentions, partisan enthusiasm, and the core issues shaping the electorate. The findings not only predicted key primary results but also illustrate broader political dynamics that are likely to carry forward into November.
Primary Participation: Republicans Show Higher Enthusiasm
Among respondents, 55% reported plans to vote in the New Jersey primaries, a solid marker of political engagement. But the data revealed a stark partisan divide:
- 52% of engaged voters said they’d vote in the Republican primary, while
- Only 32% planned to participate in the Democratic primary,
- With 16% undecided or opting out altogether.
This enthusiasm gap foreshadowed the turnout pattern seen on primary day. Republican voters, energized and issue-driven, were more mobilized — a dynamic that helped shape the actual outcomes at the ballot box.
Poll Predictions Mirror Primary Outcomes
The accuracy of the poll was underscored on election night, as its findings closely mirrored the final results of both the Democratic and Republican primaries.
Democratic Primary: Sherrill’s Anticipated Victory
Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill emerged victorious in the Democratic primary — a result our poll had already anticipated, showing her with 28% of support among likely voters. Sherrill’s campaign focus on economic security and affordability directly echoed the poll’s findings, where issues like affordable housing, inflation, and jobs ranked highest among Democratic-leaning respondents. Her message clearly landed with constituents.
Republican Primary: Ciattarelli’s Commanding Lead
Former State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli dominated the Republican field — also in line with our poll data, which showed him as the clear frontrunner. His emphasis on crime, taxes, and economic growth aligned with top concerns expressed by Republican respondents. The poll also highlighted higher Republican turnout intent, a trend that played out in the actual results, giving Ciattarelli an edge fueled by base energy and policy alignment.
Engagement Reflected in Real Turnout
The poll’s indication of stronger Republican engagement — with 52% intending to vote vs. 32% of Democrats — matched observed turnout, reinforcing how voter motivation and issue resonance are critical predictors of electoral momentum.
Top Issues: Affordability and Crime Take Center Stage
When asked what issue most influenced their vote, New Jerseyans sent a clear message about economic pressure and safety:
- Affordable Housing and Crime were tied as the leading concerns (each with 12.5% of mentions),
- Followed by Jobs & the Economy and Cost of Living/Inflation (9.4% each).
This cross-partisan focus on practical, kitchen-table issues explains the success of both Sherrill and Ciattarelli — candidates who campaigned squarely on these fronts. Lower prioritization of topics like the environment, education, and healthcare suggests that economic insecurity remains top of mind for voters across the state.
Conclusion: General Election Outlook
The results of this poll, reinforced by real-world outcomes, suggest a 2025 general election that will be shaped by:
- High-intensity Republican engagement
- A Democratic nominee with a strong economic message
- A cross-partisan electorate focused on cost-of-living pressures
Both parties will need to court the middle — the unaffiliated, economically anxious, and disengaged voters — to secure a win in November. The primaries offered a clear signal: in New Jersey, voters are tuned in to pocketbook issues, and they expect real solutions.
The race is on.
Methodology:
Insights derived from proprietary Campaign Insights’ Realtime Research technology, which embeds questions seamlessly into digital environments to collect timely, voluntary responses from a representative cross-section of Americans nationwide.