Campaign Insights

Aug 14, 2023, 2:00pm

Pulse on the 2024 Republican Primary, August 2023

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We polled Americans to get their view on how they plan to vote in the 2024 Republican Primary.

Highlights

The United States 2024 Republican Primary is a matter of intense national debate. Campaign Insights has been collecting data Nationally as well as New Hampshire and Iowa. We want to track how Republican Presidential candidates are polling in early voting states, as compared to the nation as a whole.
Which candidate would you vote for in the 2024 Republican Primary?
  1. We surveyed over 4,000 Americans across the country to see how voters feel about the Republican party candidates.
  2. Donald Trump is still leading by over 20 points nationwide.
  3. Ron DeSantis is in second place nationally, but In New Hampshire Tim Scott has taken the lead over DeSantis by 6 percentage points.
  4. Vivek Ramaswamy has become more popular across the country and now leads Nikki Haley just under 2 percentage points.
  5. We also wanted to include a longer shot candidate in Ryan Binkley to see how much awareness he has among the voter base.

Results

Utilizing Campaign Insights’ sophisticated digital polling technology, we asked registered voters who they would vote for in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary out of six candidates. We included the top 4 Republican candidates and two additional candidates that have been gaining traction.
National Republican Primary Poll
When we look at the results for respondents who are registered and likely to vote. Of the 2038 respondents; 44.5 % of those polled said they would vote for Donald Trump. 22.7% for Ron DeSantis, 14.4% for Tim Scott, 9.3% for Vivek Ramaswamy, 7.5% for Nikki Haley and 1.7% for Ryan Binkley.
Iowa Republican Primary Poll
New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll
Comparing Iowa voters (681) and New Hampshire voters (419) we still show Donald Trump leading significantly, but Tim Scott is gaining more traction in these two key states compared to national numbers. In New Hampshire, he has actually surpassed DeSantis by 5 percentage points.

The Process

In leveraging our Realtime Polling technology to poll people and analyze the results in real time to gain insights into the sentiment of America as we approach the 2024 Presidential cycle. We plan to continue polls until the 2024 election is concluded.

Discussion

Based on our national results, Donald Trump still holds a significant lead over the rest of the party by over 20 percentage points. Ron DeSantis still maintains second place nationally but that lead is wavering as we see Tim Scott leading in New Hampshire and neck and neck in Iowa. Vivek Ramaswamy has gained popularity and is now leading Nikki Haley nationally and in New Hampshire. Haley is still showing as leading Vivek in Iowa. Ryan Binkley closes up the poll with 1.7% which could provide him enough national awareness to make it to the debate stage.
Campaign Insights’ Realtime Polling surveys differ from traditional online surveys in that the questions are shown to the user on web pages in place of an ad. Unlike Google Surveys, which block access to content until the questions are answered, Realtime Polling surveys are optional, thus ensuring that participants are responding voluntarily.