Jul 07, 2023, 11:42am

Pulse on the 2024 Presidential Election, July 2023

We polled Americans to get their views on the 2024 election and analyzed how their opinions have changed based on how they voted in 2020.

Highlights

The United States 2024 presidential election is a matter of intense national debate. Campaign Insights has been collecting data for the past five months to understand current voter sentiment.

We surveyed over 5,600 Americans to understand their opinions on the 2024 Presidential election.
7% of 2020 Biden voters would vote for Trump in 2024, while 4.2% of 2020 Trump voters would vote for Biden in 2024.
71.6% of 2020 Trump voters want him to be the GOP Presidential candidate.
33% of Joe Biden’s 2020 voters don’t want him to run again in 2024

Results

Utilizing Campaign Insights’ sophisticated digital polling technology, we started by asking Americans who they voted for in the 2020 Presidential Election. This allows us to break out data and see the coloration between the different groups.

One of the questions we asked was, “If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run in 2024, who would you vote for?

When we look at the results for all respondents (3122), 51.6% said they would vote for Donald Trump while 48.4% said they would vote for Joe Biden. When looking at all respondents, Donald Trump has a 3.2-point lead over Joe Biden.

We then excluded all 2020 non-voters and looked only at 2020 voters (2482), 52.5% said they would vote for Donald Trump while 47.5% said they would vote for Joe Biden. When looking at respondents who voted in the 2020 election, Trump’s lead widens to 5-points.

We then broke it down by how respondents voted in the 2020 Presidential election. When looking at respondents who voted for Biden in 2020 (1209), 93% said they would vote for him again in 2024, while 7% said they would switch to Donald Trump.

When looking at respondents who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 (1273), 95.8% said they would vote for him again while 4.2% said they would switch their vote to Biden in 2024.

In the 2020 Presidential election Joe Biden won by 4.4% but when you consider the people who would now switch their votes, Donald Trump would have a 1.2-point lead. (Trump Net +2.8 points, Biden Net -2.8 points)

Lastly, if we look back week over week, we can see by the volatility this race is far from over.

The Process

We wanted to gain insights into the sentiment of America as we approach the 2024 Presidential cycle. We are using our Realtime Polling technology to poll people and analyze the results in real time. We plan to continue until the 2024 election is concluded.

What We Asked

Who did you vote for in the 2020 Presidential election? (All Survey Takers)
Which GOP candidate would you vote for in the 2024 Presidential primary? (2020 Trump Voters)
Do you think Joe Biden should run again in 2024? (2020 Biden Voters)
Do you think Joe Biden should pick a new Vice President for the 2024 Presidential election? (2020 Biden Voters)
If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run in 2024, who would you vote for? (All Survey Takers)
What Topic is most important to you? (All Survey Takers)
Which political party do you most align with? (All Survey Takers)
Are you registered to vote? (2020 Non-voters)
How old are you?
What is your gender?

Discussion

Based on the results, Donald Trump currently holds a slight lead over President Biden in a 2024 Presidential rematch. While both parties are facing some serious allegations, it has only seemed to charge the political landscape. Trump v. Biden is only a small part of our overall polling scope but this data plays an integral role in understanding party sentiments.

Campaign Insights Realtime Polling surveys differ from traditional online surveys in that the questions are shown to the user on web pages in place of an ad. Unlike Google Surveys, which block access to content until the questions are answered, Realtime Polling surveys are optional, thus ensuring that participants are responding voluntarily.