Campaign Insights

Feb 23, 2024, 2:58pm

Pulse on the 2024 Presidential Election, February 2024

Pulse on the 2024 Presidential Election, February 2024
The political landscape is already buzzing with speculation, analysis, and anticipation. With a plethora of factors shaping the outcome of the race, from voter sentiment to policy priorities, understanding the dynamics at play is crucial in determining which candidate might hold the edge.
We conducted a recent survey that offers valuable insights into preferences, priorities, and potential outcomes for the upcoming election cycle. While Trump continues to dominate the caucasus, Nikki Haley is starting to gain support from 2020 Joe Biden voters. Let’s delve into the key findings of this comprehensive study.

Highlights

  1. We surveyed 3667 Americans.
  2. 55.3% of 2020 Biden voters would prefer someone else as the democratic candidate. Up slightly from 53.4% in our January poll. (Pulse of Presidency, January 2024)
  3. 82.3% of 2020 Trump voters surveyed said they would vote for Trump over Nikki Haley as the GOP candidate.
  4. 34.5% of 2020 Biden voters would vote for Nikki Haley in a Biden vs Haley election. Compared to 18.4% who would vote for Donald Trump in a Biden vs Trump election.
We started by asking people “Who did you vote for in the 2020 Presidential election?” This allowed us to identify active voters and branch questions based on how people responded.
Who did you vote for in the 2020 Presidential election?
The results showed that 29.2% reported voting for Joe Biden, 34.8% for Donald Trump, and the remaining 36.0% stated that they did not vote.
Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential elections?
We followed this up by asking 2020 Joe Biden voters, “Would you prefer a candidate other than Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential election?” 55.3% responded affirmatively. Up slightly from 53.4% when compared to our January poll. (Pulse of Presidency, January 2024) This statistic suggests a notable level of dissatisfaction among Biden’s previous supporters, indicating a potential shift in allegiance or desire for alternative leadership within the Democratic Party.
Would you prefer a candidate other than Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential election?
Among 2020 Donald Trump voters, a staggering 82.3% expressed their intention to vote for Trump in the GOP primary, showing significant influence and stronghold within the Republican base. However, it’s worth noting that 17.7% of respondents favored Nikki Haley, hinting at a degree of divergence within the Republican electorate.
Who would you vote for in the GOP primary?
When looking at 2020 Trump voters in South Carolina, we saw similar results. With 80.1%, indicating that they would vote for Donald Trump and only 19.9% expressing a preference for Nikki Haley. This reaffirms Trump’s popularity, even in Nikki Haley’s home state.
Who would you vote for in the GOP primary?
In a scenario pitting Joe Biden against Nikki Haley in the 2024 presidential race, when looking at all 2020 voters, 53.8% expressed a preference for Haley, while 46.2% favored Biden. This result underscores the potential competitiveness of such a matchup and highlights Haley’s appeal across party lines.
If Joe Biden and Nikki Haley run for president in 2024, who would you vote for?
When presented with a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 election, respondents were more evenly split, with 47.9% supporting Biden and 52.1% backing Trump. This finding underscores the enduring polarization in American politics and the continued influence of both candidates within their respective bases.
If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run for president in 2024, who would you vote for?
We asked 2020 Joe Biden voters about their preference in a Biden vs. Trump matchup in 2024, a vast majority, 81.6%, reiterated their support for Biden. Nonetheless, 18.4% expressed a willingness to switch their allegiance, underscoring the importance of Biden’s performance and messaging in retaining his base.
If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run for president in 2024, who would you vote for?
When pitted against Nikki Haley, Joe Biden maintained a significant lead among his own voter base, with 65.5% expressing support for his candidacy compared to 34.5% for Haley. When comparing Trump and Haley, Haley has the advantage with 2020 Biden voters.
If Joe Biden and Nikki Haley run for president in 2024, who would you vote for?

The Discussion

As the election season unfolds, candidates’ ability to address voter concerns, navigate contentious issues, and appeal to a diverse electorate will be pivotal in determining the outcome. With the political landscape poised for uncertainty and shifts, only time will tell which candidate will emerge victorious in the quest for the White House.
However, a story is emerging about 2020 Trump voters who remain steadfast in their loyalty to the former president and 2020 Biden voters considering all options. While the data shows Trump’s dominance within the Republican party, it also shows Nikki Haley’s appeal among 2020 Joe Biden voters. With Donald Trump and Nikki Haley leading President Biden in the poll, will Trump’s momentum be enough to carry him to 270 or does the GOP have a better chance at the White House with a more moderate Nikki Haley on the ticket?

The Process

Analyzing the survey data provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race. While Joe Biden faces notable dissent within his own voter base, particularly regarding a desire for alternative candidates, his strongest challengers appear to be former President Donald Trump and Republican figure Nikki Haley. Trump’s enduring support among Republican voters and Haley’s competitive edge underscores their potential to mount formidable challenges to Biden’s reelection bid. We will continue to poll the American public and share our results, as the current political landscape inevitably changes.

What We Asked in this Poll

  1. Who did you vote for in the 2020 Presidential election?
  2. Would you prefer a candidate other than Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential election? (2020 Biden voters)
  3. Who would you vote for in the GOP primary? (2020 Trump voters)
  4. If Joe Biden and Nikki Haley run for president in 2024, who would you vote for?
  5. If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run for president in 2024, who would you vote for?
  6. Which topic is most important to you?
  7. What political party do you most align with?
  8. What is your age range?

Campaign Insights’ Real-time Polling surveys differ from traditional online surveys in that the questions are shown to the user on web pages in place of an ad. Unlike Google Surveys, which block access to content until the questions are answered, Real-time Polling surveys are optional, thus ensuring that participants are responding voluntarily.