Campaign Insights

Jan 05, 2024, 2:00pm

Pulse on the 2024 Presidential Election, January 2024

Pulse on the 2024 Presidential Election, January 2024
We continue to poll Americans to get their views on the 2024 election and analyze how their opinions have changed based on how they voted in 2020.

Highlights

As the 2024 presidential election continues to heat up, we are continuing to gather insights into how Americans feel. Following up on a similar poll we ran back in July, we wanted an updated look at how people felt about our current presidential frontrunners. (Pulse of Presidency, July 2023)
  1. We surveyed over 1,806 Americans to gauge the sentiment of the American people going into an election year.
  2. 13.1% of 2020 Biden voters would vote for Trump in 2024, which is a 6.1% increase since our poll in July.
  3. 7.3% of 2020 Trump voters would vote for Biden in 2024, which is a 3.1% increase since our poll in July.
  4. 53.4% of respondents who identified as Democrat would prefer a candidate other than Joe Biden for 2024, while only 31.9% of Republicans would prefer a candidate other than Donald Trump.
Utilizing Campaign Insights sophisticated digital polling technology, we asked Americans who they voted for in the 2020 Presidential Election. This allowed us to cross reference data and examine the colorations between the different groups.
Who did you vote for in the 2020 Presidential election?
Next we asked, “If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run in 2024, who would you vote for?”
If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run in 2024 who would you vote for?
When we look at only people who voted in 2020 (655), 54.5% said they would vote for Donald Trump while 45.5% said they would vote for Joe Biden. In this case, Trump’s lead grows to 9-points compared to his 5-point lead back in July. (Pulse of Presidency, July 2023)
If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run in 2024 who would you vote for? (2020 Voters)
We then broke it down by how respondents voted in the 2020 Presidential election. When looking at respondents who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 (341), 92.7% said they would vote for him again while 7.3% said they would switch their vote to Biden in 2024. That’s a 3.1% loss of support since our last poll in July 2023. (Pulse of Presidency, July 2023)
If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run in 2024 who would you vote for? (2020 Trump Voters)
When looking at respondents who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (314), 86.9% said they would vote for him again, while 13.1% said they would switch to Donald Trump. That’s a 6.1% loss of support since our last poll in July 2023.
If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run in 2024 who would you vote for? (2020 Biden Voters)
From there we looked at how people felt about the candidate currently leading their party and if they “Would prefer another candidate for their party?”
Of the people who identified as Democrat, 53.4% said they would prefer a candidate other than Joe Biden with 46.6% saying they wanted Joe Biden. Of the people who identified as Republican, 31.9% said they would prefer a candidate other than Donald Trump with 68.1% saying they wanted Donald Trump.
Would you prefer another candidate for your party?
In the 2020 Presidential election Joe Biden won by 4.4 points (51.3% to 46.9%) but when we consider the people who would now switch their votes (Trump Net +5.8 points, Biden Net -5.8 points), Donald Trump would have a 7.2 – point lead. Which is a 1,100% increase since our July 2023 polling. (.06 point lead to a 7.2 point lead) (Pulse of Presidency, July 2023)
Who would you rather be President? (Jan. 2024)
Who would you rather be President? (July 2023)

The Process

With the ever changing political landscape, we are constantly collecting data and analyzing results. We will continue to check the temperature of the American public and share our insights as we approach the 2024 Presidential election.

What We Asked in this Poll

  1. Who did you vote for in the 2020 Presidential election?
  2. If Joe Biden and Donald Trump run in 2024, who would you vote for?
  3. Would you prefer another candidate for your party?
  4. What Topic is most important to you?
  5. Which political party do you most align with?
  6. How old are you?

Discussion

With the 2024 election year officially underway, our polls are beginning to paint a picture of loyal Trump supporters and Biden supporters looking for the exit. A majority of the Democratic party (53.4%) prefers another candidate in 2024, with 13% of 2020 Biden voters switching to Trump in 2024. Joe Biden has a tough road ahead of him.
Even with a solid base of support, Trump is not without his own set of problems. With pending legal battles and threats to ban him from ballots, the next 11 months should prove to be a whirlwind of events.
While we wonder how the Republican party might react if Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot come November, how will Democrats react if Joe Biden is?
Campaign Insights’ Realtime Polling surveys differ from traditional online surveys in that the questions are shown to the user on web pages in place of an ad. Unlike Google Surveys, which block access to content until the questions are answered, Realtime Polling surveys are optional, thus ensuring that participants are responding voluntarily.